Kevin Selle
Wichita Falls, TX
Male, 55
I've been a broadcast meteorologist on television since the early 1990's. Happy to answer any questions about the weather or local TV news. Yes, I often wear sneakers on set just out of view of the camera.
Hi, Tommy. Winter weather forecasting is pretty difficult. I'm guessing your question might be at least a little exaggerated. The foundation of any forecast is the weather balloons that are launched twice a day around the world. That, and other data, are fed into computer programs that model the behavior of the atmosphere. Since weather balloon launch sites are pretty far apart unseen effects can creep in and affect the forecast. In some cases a storm track shift of just a few miles can change snowfall amounts in a given spot pretty dramatically.
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Hi, Keith. Lightning is looking to relieve the difference between a positive and negative charge in the atmosphere. In order to do that it looks for the path of least resistance and often looks for several paths to do it in a given strike, that is why it often looks forked. The first path that makes the connection between positive and negative wins and that part of the channel is usually brightest. Specific to your question, could the spinning air have some effect on the channel? Maybe a small bit. If you are suggesting something you might see in a Marvel movie...I's say no. :) Thanks.
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El Nino does seem to run in cycles but specific to your question, it is difficult to predict a given year based on the previous year. If you'd like to study more here is a page from the National Weather Service, you can also search El Nino Southern Oscillation. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/ensowhat
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There is a strong low pressure area to your east. Mother Nature likes for things to be in balance. Think of low pressure as a valley, high pressure as a hill. She is moving air from the hill to fill the valley. The bigger the hill, the deeper the valley, the faster the air moves to fix the imbalance and the stronger the wind blows. Great question, thanks.
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I think that is mostly perception, Billie. Great question. Tornadoes that hit cities will drive more news coverage and attention. Also, relative to a region, for example, a city is relatively small. I regularly drive the highways of Oklahoma and Texas and there is a lot of empty space in between cities. Region of the country matters as well. New York City is a relatively large area in a region that has fewer tornadoes. Dallas/Fort Worth is a large area in an area that sees more tornadoes, the odds of the city are higher because of the greater frequency of tornadoes in that part of the country. There really isn't any research I know of that points to cities being more or less likely to be hit relative to the atmosphere. If you really want to dive into some data you can visit this website. Thanks! https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology
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A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico can easily make to the central plains of the United States. Usually it would have been downgraded from a hurricane before leaving Texas but the remnants can stay well organized and touch much the eastern half of the country.
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Great question. A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch will come from the Storm Prediction Center, often in consultation with local offices. A hurricane watch will come from the National Hurricane Center and winter weather and flood watches will come from local offices. Thanks, Donovin!
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